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April 12, 2016

April 12, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence 3
12th-16th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 13.3% 13.5%
12th-16th CNY New Loans 727B 1100B
08:30 GBP CPI y/y 0.3% 0.3%
12:30 USD Import Prices m/m -0.3% 1.1%
23:50 JPY PPI y/y -3.4% -3.5%

Global Commentary 

Asian markets were mixed Monday, with China and Japan diverging once again as the two countries face very different economic challenges.  China’s Shanghai Composite led the region higher as it tacked on 1.64% following modest inflation data that leaves room for the People’s Bank of China to add more stimulus to the market if necessary.  Japan’s Nikkei ended the day with a 0.44% loss, underperforming the region again as the Yen continued to strengthen.  In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 pared early losses of 0.6% to end the day a more modest 0.12% lower.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng followed the gains on the mainland and added 0.37%.  In South Korea, the Kospi edged lower by 0.09%, while in Singapore the Straits Times edged higher by 0.03%.  Gains from commodities and a rally in Italian banking stocks lifted the broader European market to gains Monday.  The Stoxx Europe 600 finished 0.30% higher, while Germany’s DAX added 0.63% and the CAC 40 in France gained 0.22%.  The FTSE ended off by 0.07% after spending the session trading back and forth over unchanged levels.  U.S. markets gave back early gains as the USD struggled against the Yen and a rally in crude lost steam in the afternoon.  At the close, the S&P 500 was off by 0.27%, the Dow fell 0.12%, and the Nasdaq was 0.36% lower. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro was weaker against the Pound and the Yen Monday, while finishing unchanged versus the USD after trading back and forth over the 1.1400 level all day.

GBP – The Pound firmed broadly Monday as trader fears over a Brexit evaporated at the start of the week.

USD – The USD continued to struggle Monday, falling against the Yen and the Pound, but ending the day unchanged versus the Euro.

JPY – The Yen gained on the USD and Euro Monday, while softening versus the Pound.

TRY – The Lira firmed broadly Monday after Turkey selected a new central bank chief.  Though the Lira was stronger against most major currencies, it ended unchanged versus the Pound.

RUB – The Ruble gained on most currencies Monday, thanks to a rally in crude.  The Russian currency did finish off its daily highs though, and was unchanged versus the Pound.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals made solid gains Monday as outside markets were bullish, with the USD softer and crude prices rising.  By the end of the session, June gold was up $13.80 at $1,257.50 an ounce.  May silver was up $0.551 at $15.935 an ounce.

Oil – Crude got a boost Monday and finished at a three week high after U.S. active rig counts fell for a third consecutive week, and data pointed to increased demand in China and the U.S.  Crude for delivery in May was up $0.64, or 1.6%, settling at $40.36 a barrel.

Indices 

S&P500 – The S&P spent the entire day trading in positive territory, but a selloff in the final hour of trading led to a loss of 0.27% on the day for the large cap benchmark index.

DAX – The DAX jumped higher right after the open and continued trading near session highs for the remainder of the day to close with a gain of 0.63%.

Nikkei – The Nikkei plummeted in the morning as investors responded to the continued strength of the Yen.  The market managed a recovery in the afternoon as Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda gave a speech in which he said the BoJ stands ready to add more stimulus to the economy as necessary.  By the end of the session the market pared a good part of the morning losses, but was still 0.44% lower.


Stocks

Alcoa – The basic materials manufacturer unofficially kicked off earnings season after the bell Monday, reporting better than expected earnings, but disappointing revenues.  Earnings came in at $0.07 a share versus consensus estimates of $0.02 a share.  Revenues were $4.95 billion versus expectations of $5.2 billion.  The stock traded 3.95% higher during the regular session ahead of the earnings release which came after the bell.  The disappointing revenues sent the stock plunging 4.52% in after-hours trading.  Revenues were 15% lower on a year-on-year basis, but that was due to a 21% loss on lower aluminum prices and the strong USD.  Without that loss revenues would have been up 6%.  The after-hours drop in the stock puts the price right on the 200 day moving average and we might expect a bounce from that level.

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