August 17, 2018

 

 

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
00:30 AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
08:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
10:00 EUR Final CPI y/y 2.1% 2.1%
13:30 CAD CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
13:30 CAD Common CPI y/y 1.9%
13:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 2.18B 4.91B
13:30 CAD Median CPI y/y 2.0%
13:30 CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 2.0%
15:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.9 98.1

 

Global Commentary

Asian markets continued lower Thursday, but finished off their daily lows after China announced it would take part in trade negotiations with the U.S. later in the month. The news gave investors increased confidence that a trade war could be averted. The last meeting between China and the U.S. to discuss trade ended prematurely in May. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite came off its lows to finish the session 0.66% lower, but in Hong Kong the Hang Seng slipped 0.82% lower as shares of Tencent fell 3.04% following disappointing quarterly earnings. In Japan the Nikkei finished the day with a small 0.05% loss as it recovered from an earlier loss of 1.5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 also avoided large losses as it edged lower by 0.01%. South Korean investors returned from a mid-week holiday to send the Kospi 0.8% lower as heavy weights Samsung and SK Hynix fell 2% and 1.6% respectively.

European markets rebounded partially from the previous session’s decline as the currency crisis in Turkey continued to show signs of recovery, and the prospect of trade talks between China and the U.S. helped lift investor sentiment. The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.46%, with a rise in commodity prices helping lift the broader market. In Germany the DAX gained 0.61%, while the CAC 40 in France outperformed as it rose 0.83% and snapped a four session losing streak. In London, the FTSE gained 0.78% as it broke its longest losing streak since February. Gains from the energy and mining sectors were prevalent in the British index.

U.S. markets rallied higher, with the Dow Industrials posting their best daily gain since March on the hopes generated by news of a U.S. – China trade conference by the end of the month. The Dow was up by 1.58% at the close Thursday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.79% and the Nasdaq was up by 0.42%. The improved trade picture sent shares of Boeing and Caterpillar sharply higher, with the former adding 4.29%, while the latter was up by 3.21%. The best gain came from Wal-Mart though, with the retailer’s shares up 9.33% after reporting revenues and earnings that topped forecasts as well as increasing its 2019 earnings forecast.

 

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies were mixed, but little changed on Thursday as they consolidated the gains from the previous session. Bitcoin was down a modest 0.6% and remained well above the $6,000 support level. Ethereum continued to gain modestly and was up 0.2%, while Ripple added 2.5%. The best gains in the top ten cryptocurrencies came from Ethereum Classic, which soared 19.4% higher, knocking Monero out of the number 10 spot.

 

FOREX

EUR/USD – After printing a bullish reversal candle in the previous session the pair followed through by rising on Thursday. The continued recovery in Turkey’s Lira helped lift the Euro, and this pair traded briefly above the 1.1400 level, but wasn’t able to remain above that large round number and dropped back to end the day around the 1.1375 level instead. The pair will need to close above the 1.1400 level to confirm the reversal, but it’s uncertain if investors will be so bold heading into the weekend with Turkey still in a precarious position.

AUD/USD – This pair printed a similar bullish reversal candle on Wednesday, and also followed through by rising on Thursday. We didn’t get a confirmation of a reversal however as the pair retreated from the 0.7265 level by just 5 pips. If we get a continued move higher in the Asian session overnight the reversal will clearly be signaled and we might expect the pair to rise as high as the 0.7400 level before pausing.

 

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals were mixed on Thursday, with gold remaining at a 19-month low, but silver reclaiming some of the sharp losses from the previous session as industrial metals rallied. December gold fell by $1.00, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $1,184 an ounce, while September silver settled up $0.259, or 1.8%, at $14.713 an ounce. In other metals trade, September copper added $0.057, or 2.2%, to settle at nearly $2.617 a pound. October platinum clawed up from its lowest point in roughly a decade, finishing up $12.60, or 1.6%, at $784.50 an ounce and September palladium rose $37.60, or 4.5%, to $874.80 an ounce.

Oil – Crude gained on Thursday as the news of trade talks for the U.S. and China helped lift risk appetite, and a flat U.S. dollar allowed commodities some breathing room. September West Texas Intermediate crude rose $0.45, or 0.7%, to settle at $65.46 a barrel, while October Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose $0.15, or 0.2%, to $70.91 a barrel.

 

Indices

Dow Industrials – The Dow had its best daily performance since March, rising 1.58% as investors cheered news of upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Boeing and Caterpillar were beneficiaries of the news, rising 4.3% and 3.2% respectively. Shares of Wal-Mart outperformed with a 9.3% gain after reporting better than expected revenue and earnings, as well as an increased earnings forecast for 2019. Overall, 26 of the 30 Dow components finished the day higher in the broad based rally.

FTSE 100 – The benchmark equity index in the U.K. finally halted a five session losing streak, its longest such streak in six months, by rising 0.78% on Thursday. Gains were led by the mining and energy sectors as commodities rallied during the Thursday session. There was also improved investor sentiment as the Turkish currency crisis continued to stabilize, and news came from China that trade talks between the U.S. and China would take place before the end of the month.

S&P/ASX 200 – After trading down as much as 0.6% in morning trade the Australian benchmark equity index rebounded in the afternoon and finished with a very slight loss of 0.01%. Most of that came from falling commodities shares as crude prices fell overnight and Chinese iron ore prices dropped more than 4%. BHP Billiton fell 2.3% to its lowest in more than three weeks, while rival Rio Tinto fell 1.3% to its lowest level in seven months.


Stocks

Cisco – Shares of the computer networking equipment maker surged higher Thursday morning after reporting earnings that topped expectations, and providing a better than expected outlook and guidance for the coming quarters. By the close, shares of Cisco were 2.96% higher, giving a boost to the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq. The days’ gains came after Cisco’s stock gained more than 6% in overnight trade.

The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $3.8 billion, or $0.81 a share, compared with $2.42 billion, or $0.48 a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings were $0.70 a share, and revenue rose to $12.84 billion from $12.13 billion in the year-ago period. Wall Street had expected revenue of $12.77 billion, and earnings of $0.69 a share.

Including Thursday’s gain the stock is up 17.8% since the start of the year and 39.5% over the past 52 weeks. Considering the strength of the quarterly results and upbeat tone of guidance from Cisco these gains should extend through the end of the year.

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