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April 15, 2016

April 15, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
01:30 AUD RBA Financial Stability Review
02:00 CNY GDP q/y 6.8% 6.7%
02:00 CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.4% 5.9%
02:00 CNY NBS Press Conference
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 2.3% -1.4%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate 76.7% 75.4%
13:15 USD Industrial Production m/m -0.5% -0.1%
14:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 91.0 91.9

 

Global Commentary

Asian markets continued to head higher as a global rally in equities was extended into a second day following the strength seen overnight from Europe and the U.S.  The Nikkei in Japan was by far the best performer of the day as a weaker Yen during the Asian session sent it shooting higher by 3.23%.  The Shanghai Composite on mainland China had a much choppier performance, but still managed to finish 0.51% higher as it rallied late in the day.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng followed the mainland market higher and added 0.90%.  In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 tacked on 1.26% as investors there remain quite positive.  Elsewhere Singapore’s Straits Times Index was 0.81% higher, and the Kospi in South Korea advanced 1.75%.  European markets managed to keep the rally alive, but were pressured by a mixed bag of earnings.  The Stoxx Europe 600 pulled out a 0.27% gain, while Germany’s DAX ended 0.67% higher, and the CAC 40 in France advanced 0.47%.  London’s FTSE struggled to find direction Thursday, finishing just 0.03% higher as the Bank of England held firm on rates.  U.S. markets struggled and ended mixed but little changed as a weak inflation report balanced the lowest jobs claims number since 1973, keeping investors uncertain.  At the close of trading in the U.S. the S&P 500 was up by 0.02%, the Dow added 0.10%, while the Nasdaq edged lower by 0.03%.

 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro fell against the USD and Yen modestly on Thursday, while gaining on the Pound.

GBP – The Pound was broadly lower Thursday after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged as expected, but also commented that there are signs that Brexit fears are already hurting the U.K. economy.

USD – The USD was mostly stronger Thursday, climbing against the Euro and Pound, but ending slightly weaker versus the Yen.

JPY – The Yen heading lower in the Asian session Thursday, but then reversed course, finishing the day broadly firmer versus rivals.

TRY – The Lira erased early session weakness and ended the day unchanged against the Euro and Pound, and just slightly weaker versus the Yen and USD.

RUB – Despite a decline in crude, the Ruble managed to gain broadly on major currencies Thursday.


Commodities

Metals – Precious metals had a follow through on the weakness from Wednesday and finished the day solidly lower Thursday.  June gold was down $20.20 at $1,228.10 an ounce.  May silver was down $0.135 at $16.195 an ounce.

Oil – Crude edged lower for a second consecutive session Thursday as traders became cautious ahead of this weekend’s meeting between major oil producing countries in Qatar.  May WTI crude fell $0.26, or 0.6%, to settle at $41.50 a barrel.

 

Indices

S&P500 – The S&P opened flat and traded flat all day to finish with a slight gain of 0.02% as traders were disappointed by earnings from Wells Fargo and Bank of America and struggled with weak inflation data.

DAX – The DAX had a choppy morning Thursday, bouncing up and down off the unchanged line.  The choppy behavior extended into the early afternoon, but then the DAX finally turned higher as U.S. markets opened higher.  By the end of the trading day in Germany the DAX was 0.67% higher.

Nikkei – The Nikkei surged higher at the open Thursday as investors were encouraged by the overnight weakness in the Yen versus the USD.  The Yen continued to weaken during the Asian session, and the Nikkei continued to climb, finishing the session with a 3.23% gain as it led the Asia region higher.


Stocks

Bank of America Corp. – While earnings and revenues from the second largest bank holding company in the U.S. were as poor as expected by investors and earnings per share was in-line with expectations, the banks’ profits were still 13% lower.  While the results weighed on broader market sentiment, shares of Bank of America itself were up 2.54% for the day.  This continues the recovery in the stock that began after the stock hit a low of $11.16 on February 11th.  Since that time the stock is up more than 15%.  Traders may want to be a bit cautious as the stock has rallied strongly over the past three sessions, coming from the lower Bollinger bank to the upper Bollinger band during that short period of time.  The Relative Strength Index is also heading towards overbought territory and we expect the stock to turn sideways at least, if not to pull back in consolidation.

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