February 22, 2017
|00:30||AUD||Construction Work Done q/q||-4.9%||0.5%|
|00:30||AUD||Wage Price Index q/q||0.4%||0.5%|
|09:00||EUR||German Ifo Business Climate||109.8||109.6|
|09:30||GBP||Second Estimate GDP q/q||0.6%||0.6%|
|09:30||GBP||Prelim Business Investment q/q||0.4%||0.0%|
|10:00||EUR||Final CPI y/y||1.8%||1.8%|
|13:30||CAD||Core Retail Sales m/m||0.1%||0.8%|
|15:00||USD||Existing Home Sales||5.49M||5.55M|
Asian markets were mostly higher on Tuesday, spurred on by gains from Chinese banks and a weaker Yen in Japan. The Shanghai Composite on mainland China added 0.41% on the day, extending the more than 1% gains made on Monday, but in Hong Kong the Hang Seng headed lower, losing 0.76% after global banks issued downbeat reports on the country’s economic future. The Nikkei in Japan rose steadily throughout the day to post a 0.68% gain. In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 suffered a choppy trading session, ending with a modest 0.07% loss. Singapore’s Straits Times Index retreated 0.08%, while the South Korean Kospi led gains across the region as it advanced 0.89%. European markets began the day with weakness, but picked up later in the day after a better than expected preliminary reading on manufacturing activity in the Eurozone. The broad based Stoxx Europe 600 ended the day 0.64% higher and at its highest level in fourteen months, with Germany’s DAX gaining 1.18%, while the CAC 40 in France advanced 0.49%. The FTSE was knocked lower as HSBC shares suffered their worst daily decline in nearly eight years, causing the FTSE to close down by 0.34%. U.S. markets rallied strongly on Tuesday, making broad based gains to new record closing levels. At the close the S&P 500 was higher by 0.59%, the Dow added 0.54%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.47%.
EUR – Despite Eurozone manufacturing data coming in stronger than expected on Tuesday the Euro currency softened broadly against rival currencies.
GBP – The Pound was mostly stronger on Tuesday, gaining on both the Yen and Euro during the session. Against the USD the Pound was weak early in the session, but recovered and pared all the early losses to finish the day unchanged against the greenback.
USD – The USD was mostly stronger on Tuesday, gaining on the Euro and the Yen, but ending the day unchanged versus the Pound as it gave back earlier gains.
JPY – The Yen was mostly weaker on Tuesday, falling against the USD and Pound, but firming versus the Euro.
TRY – The Lira was mostly stronger on Tuesday, firming solidly against the Yen and Euro and even firming slightly versus the U.S. dollar. Against the Pound the Lira gave back early gains and was slightly softer at the close.
RUB – The rally in crude on Tuesday also lifted the Ruble, with the Russian currency firming broadly as it continues showing broad based strength versus major currencies.
Metals – Precious metals finished mixed and nearly flat on Tuesday, despite a rally in equity markets, rising risk appetite, and a firmer USD. Gold for April delivery ended down $0.20, or less than 0.1%, at $1,238.90 an ounce. March silver traded higher at $18.04, up 0.013% for the day.
Oil – Crude made solid gains Tuesday as the March contract expired, with gains supported by comments from an OPEC official that pointed to more production cuts from the oil producing group later this year. West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery finished up $0.55, or 1%, at $54.33 a barrel.
S&P500 – The S&P opened higher and gained in morning trade as investors returned from their three day holiday extended weekend in a bullish mood. The market pulled back and paused over the lunch hour, but began climbing again by mid-afternoon, rising to session highs and closing at a new record high with a gain of 0.59% for the session.
DAX – The DAX surged higher on Tuesday after Eurozone manufacturing activity was reported as stronger than expected. The market got an additional push higher from a strong open on Wall Street and finished the day at its highest level since April 27, 2015 as it added 1.18% for the day.
Nikkei – The Nikkei gained at the open Tuesday in response to overnight weakness from the Yen. After Japanese manufacturing PMI came in much stronger than expected the index got a push even higher. The Nikkei then made further gains following the lunch break, and after remaining near session highs all afternoon it closed the day with a gain of 0.68%.
Exxon Mobil – After hitting a high of $92.58 in early December shares of Exxon Mobil have been trending steadily lower. While the stock did gain on Tuesday, it was a modest gain given the strength of the energy sector in general. Shares closed at $81.89 giving the stock a loss of roughly 12% from its December high. We believe further downside is possible for the stock, with support coming in around the $75 a share level. Rising crude prices could help support the stock as well, but given that crude has been basically tightly range bound over the past seven weeks, and shares of Mobil have declined during that time, even an uptick in crude might not help as much as some investors think. Exxon is definitely one of the weaker stocks in the energy sector right now, so if we were to get a pullback in crude it would likely be a good candidate for short selling.
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