February 21, 2017

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
00:30 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
00:30 JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.7 52.1
04:30 JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.3% -0.2%
09:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.2 55.0
09:00 EUR Flash Services PMI 53.7 53.7
10:00 GBP Inflation Report Hearing
14:45 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.0 54.7
14:45 USD Flash Services PMI 55.6 55.8
21:30 AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks


Global Commentary

Asian markets were mostly flat in quiet trade on Monday, as investors remained uncertain about the severity of global geopolitical risks.  Mainland China was the best performing market by far, gaining 1.18% as it climbed throughout the session.  The Hang Seng in Hong Kong followed the mainland market higher, gaining 0.47% as it extends the rally we’ve seen since the beginning of the year.  Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 finished the day with a 0.18% loss due to falling commodity prices.  In Japan the Nikkei recovered from early losses and added a modest 0.09%.  Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell by 0.35%, and in South Korea the Kospi finished the session 0.18% higher.  European markets finished broadly higher, but mixed on a country specific basis as trading was muted by U.S. markets being closed, and investors dealt with the developing French elections and the likelihood of a bailout for Greece.  The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 was 0.22% higher for the day, with Germany’s DAX adding 0.60%, but the CAC 40 in France edging lower by 0.05%.  London’s FTSE was basically unchanged as it gave up just 0.10 points for the session.  U.S. markets remained unchanged on Monday as they were closed for the President’s Day holiday.



EUR – The Euro softened against the USD and Pound on Monday, but remained unchanged versus the Yen.

GBP – The Pound firmed broadly on Monday as traders remain confident that the Brexit will work out well for the U.K.

USD – The USD firmed slightly against the Yen and Euro on Monday, while falling versus the Pound as U.S. traders were away from the market for a public holiday, making for light trading volumes.

JPY – The Yen was mostly weaker on Monday, falling against the USD and Pound, but ending unchanged versus the Euro.

TRY – The Lira firmed slightly against most major currencies on Monday, but it did soften versus the Pound.

RUB – The Ruble continued to show strength on Monday, firming broadly against major currencies, though there was no real catalyst to send the Russian currency higher.



Metals – Precious metals were mixed in thin trade Monday as U.S. markets were closed for a public holiday.  Gold for April delivery traded slightly lower, losing $0.60 and settling at $1,238.50 an ounce.  March silver was up $0.01, or 0.4% to finish at $18.04 an ounce.

Oil – Crude inched higher in a lightly traded session with U.S. markets closed.  West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery was up $0.29, or 0.5 percent, at $53.69 in very thin trading.  The March contract will expire Tuesday and the April contract will become the front month.



S&P500 – The S&P 500 was unchanged on Monday as U.S. markets remained closed in celebration of President’s Day.

DAX – The DAX spent the morning flat, trading back and forth over unchanged levels.  The market turned higher in the afternoon, gaining in choppy trade to finish the session  0.60% higher as much of Europe remained flat and directionless.

Nikkei – The Nikkei began the day deep in the red after the January trade deficit in Japan was larger than expected.  The cause for the large trade deficit was imports, which rose for the first time in two years.  The Nikkei climbed steadily higher throughout the morning, and moved into positive territory just after the lunch hour ended.  It remained modestly higher throughout the afternoon, closing with a 0.09% gain.


Amazon – Shares of the internet retailer broke into record territory on Friday, rising out of negative territory to close at $845.07 a share and topping the $844.36 close from October 6, 2016.  With shares now in uncharted territory we wonder how high they can go.  There is a good chance we could see resistance just above at the $850 round number, and this might cause a pullback in price.  If this were to happen we see the $800 level as strong support, not only because it’s a large round number, but also because the 50 day moving average currently sits right at that level.  If there is no pullback price should head up to the $900 level and we could see a test of the $1,000 level in the coming months.

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