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May 24, 2017

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
10:45 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
14:00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
14:00 CAD Overnight Rate 0.50% 0.50%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.71M 5.65M
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M -2.4M
18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Global Commentary

Asian markets started the day flat, but finished mixed as the bombing in Manchester England at a concert venue was deemed a terrorist attack, causing a risk-off sentiment among investors.  Mainland China had the worst loss, falling by 0.45%, but the Hong Kong market chose its own course and finished slightly higher by 0.05%.  Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.33% as the Yen strengthened versus the U.S. dollar on safe haven demand.  In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.19% lower at the close.  Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed 0.28% higher, while the Kospi in South Korea had the best performance as it tacked on 0.33%.  Markets in Europe ended the day broadly higher after PMI data held steady for the Eurozone at a six year high.  The broad based Stoxx Europe 600 was 0.22% higher, the German DAX added 0.31%, and the CAC 40 in France finished 0.47% higher.  London’s FTSE was a laggard however, finishing the session 0.15% lower in response to the bombing in Manchester and a spike higher in the Pound right at the U.K. market close.  Markets in the U.S. started the day flat, but then rose modestly in a broad based, but fairly tepid rally.  At the close the S&P 500 was up by 0.18%, the Dow added 0.21%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.08%.

 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro fell against the USD and Pound on Tuesday while firming against the Yen, even though PMI data showed continued strength in the Eurozone economy.

GBP – The Pound firmed against the Euro and Yen, but ended the day softer versus the USD as it gave back early gains versus the U.S. currency.

USD – The USD began the day with weakness, but picked up strength later in the day to finish broadly firmer versus rival currencies.

JPY – The Yen was broadly softer on Tuesday as traders saw little to concern them risk-wise, leading to a drop in the safe haven Japanese currency.

TRY – The Lira firmed against the Euro in choppy trade Tuesday, but ended the day broadly softer versus other major currencies.

RUB – The continued gains for crud helped lift the Ruble on Tuesday, with the Russian currency finishing the day broadly firmer versus major currencies.

 

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals dropped on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar found stable footing, weighing on the metals group.  June gold lost $5.90, or 0.5%, to settle at $1,255.50 an ounce.  Meanwhile, July silver fell $0.052, or 0.3%, to finish at $17.139 an ounce.

Oil – Crude gained for the fifth session in a row on Tuesday as traders remain convinced that OPEC will extend production cuts for at least six months when they meet later this week.  July West Texas Intermediate crude rose $0.34, or 0.7%, to settle at $51.47 a barrel.

 

Indices

S&P500 – The S&P began the day flat, but then rose throughout the morning, hitting its session high during the lunch hour on Wall Street.  The index pulled off its highs as some caution remains among investors.  At the close the S&P remained 0.18% higher for a modest gain on the day.

DAX – Germany’s DAX endured a choppy trading day due to the terror attack in the U.K., which was offset by solid PMI data across the European Union.  While the DAX ended the session off its daily high, it still posted a respectable gain of 0.31% by the close.

Nikkei – The Nikkei began the day higher, but then dropped back to unchanged levels on news of the bombing in Manchester that has reportedly killed 22 people, some of them children.  The market remained flat for most of the day after, but then fell in the final hour of trading in response to strength from the Yen, ending the session 0.33% lower on the day.


Stocks

Walt Disney Co. – After rising for several months following the U.S. presidential election, shares of Disney have been heading lower over the past several weeks after the company reported better than expected earnings, but confirmed investor fears that subscriber growth at the flagship ESPN network continues to fall.  The stock has come off a high above $115 a share and is trading down around $107 a share, with support seen down to the $104 level.  This means that the bulk of selling may have already taken place, and we could get a rebound in shares soon.  Such a rebound should take the stock back to the $115 level and could see it testing historical highs around $120 a share, either over the summer or perhaps as late as this fall.

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