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April 7, 2016

April 7, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
00:30 JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
07:30 GBP Halifax HPI m/m -1.4% 0.8%
11:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30 CAD Building Permits m/m -9.8% 4.7%
12:30 USD Unemployment Claims 276K 271K
Tentative EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
21:30 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
23:50 JPY Current Account 1.49T 1.57T

Global Commentary 

Asian markets finished Wednesday mixed as they mostly shrugged off the overnight weakness from Wall Street and Europe.  At the close the Nikkei was 0.11% lower after a volatile and choppy day.  Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite also ended slightly lower, shedding 0.08% after its own volatile and choppy day.  The Hang Seng in Hong Kong didn’t follow the mainland market either in volatility or losses as it ended a flat session 0.22% higher.  In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 experienced morning volatility and a drop deep into negative territory, but recovered to finish the day 0.44% higher.  South Korea’s Kospi also pulled off a 0.44% gain, while in Singapore the Straits Times Index was 0.37% higher at the close.  European markets headed broadly higher Wednesday as investors were encouraged by the good economic data out of China, and a rally in crude lifted energy shares significantly.  The broad-based Stoxx Europe 600 finished the day up by 0.76%, bouncing off a five week low hit the previous day.  In Germany the DAX tacked on 0.64%, while in France the CAC 40 was 0.81% higher.  London’s FTSE finished 1.16% higher on the strength in crude and positive investor sentiment over improving Chinese economic data.  U.S. markets were broadly higher Wednesday as investors got no new news from the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, and a drop in U.S. crude inventories caused crude to rocket higher.  By the close the S&P 500 was 1.05% higher, the Dow added 0.64%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.59%. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro gained on the Pound and USD, but continued to fall versus the Yen.

GBP – The Pound was broadly lower against rivals as traders keep pressure on the British currency on concerns of a Brexit later this year.

USD – The USD continued to show weakness Wednesday, falling against the Euro and Yen once more.  And while the USD firmed against the Pound, it was a small gain as the USD gave back earlier larger gains during the North American session.

JPY – The Yen continues to be the dominant currency and Wednesday saw it firming broadly and strongly against rivals again.

TRY – The Lira fell broadly against rivals Wednesday after Turkey’s Economy Minister called on the central bank to “radically” cut interest rates.

RUB – The Ruble made the strongest gains among global currencies Wednesday in response to the surge higher in crude prices.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals fell Wednesday as the risk-on atmosphere in markets took away from safe haven assets.  June gold was down $5.00 at $1,225.00 an ounce.  May silver was down $0.036 at $15.09 an ounce.

Oil – Crude jumped higher Wednesday after traders were surprised by a 4.9 million barrel drop in U.S. inventory levels and a pickup in refinery demand.  Crude for delivery in May advanced $1.86, or 5.2%, to close at $37.75 a barrel.

Indices 

S&P500 – The S&P started the day flat, but shot higher when the latest Fed meeting minutes were released, confirming the dovish posture of the group.  The market got a second boost in the afternoon in the form of a surprise drop in crude inventory levels, and by the close the S&P was 1.05% higher.

DAX – The DAX had a choppy day Wednesday, bouncing from unchanged levels to a loss of roughly 0.6% several times throughout the session.  In the final hours the index finally powered through the unchanged line and headed higher, posting a gain of 0.64% for the day.

Nikkei – The Nikkei had a volatile day, trading deep in negative territory in the morning, but then recovering and heading into the lunch break roughly 0.7% higher.  The index dropped once more in the afternoon, though the loss was steadier and a late rally erased most of the losses as the Nikkei ended with a loss of 0.11% and its sixth consecutive day in the red.


Stocks

McDonald’s – Aside from the drops in January and February that were caused by the broader market selloff, shares of McDonald’s have been moving steadily higher since October as the company makes changes to its menu, customer relations, and finances.  Since hitting a low of $87.50 on August 24th of last year, shares of the fast food giant have gained more than 37% and are now trading at $127.52 as of the close yesterday.  Investors are impressed with the turnaround at McDonald’s that has been engineered by its recently new CEO Steve Easterbrook.  Traders should be cautioned that the stock is trading in uncharted territory, is extended by quite a bit from the 50 and 200 day moving averages, and is showing signs of being overbought.  In addition, the company will report earnings April 22nd, which could be good or bad for the stock depending on how strong those earnings are.

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