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April 6, 2016

April 6, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
01:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI 51.2 51.4
05:00 JPY Leading Indicators 101.8% 99.9%
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production m/m 3.3% -1.8%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI 53.4 55.6
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.3M
18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Global Commentary 

Asian markets were broadly and sharply lower Tuesday as the losses on Wall Street overnight and a continued fall in crude prices weighed on investor sentiment.  The mainland Chinese Shanghai Composite was the lone bright spot in the region, gaining 1.45% in response to additional stimulus measures from Beijing and recent improved economic data.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.57% as investors were more concerned with falling crude prices than the gains from mainland China.  The Nikkei in Japan suffered the worst losses, falling by 2.42% thanks to the continued strength of the Yen against the U.S. dollar.  In Australia falling crude and other commodities weighed on the market and sent the S&P/ASX 200 1.42% lower.  Elsewhere South Korea’s Kospi ended the day 0.82% lower, while the Straits Times Index in Singapore was off by 1.21%.  European markets ended the session broadly lower after a measure of German factory orders disappointed investors by coming in much weaker than expected.  The Stoxx Europe 600 ended with a 1.90% loss, while Germany’s DAX led the region lower as it fell 2.63% and the CAC 40 in France was off by 2.18%.  With markets across Europe sliding lower, London traders decided to take profits and sent the FTSE down 1.19% for the day.  Losses from Europe washed up on the shores of America as markets there fell in response to the European rout, and as investors worried about a slowdown in global growth.  By the close the S&P 500 was 1.01% lower, the Dow notched its worst day in 6 weeks with a 0.75% loss, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.98%. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro was mixed on Tuesday as it firmed against the Pound, fell versus the Yen and ended basically unchanged against the USD, erasing earlier losses versus the greenback.

GBP – The Pound remains under pressure due to Brexit fears and fell broadly against rivals again on Tuesday.

USD – The USD finished Tuesday mixed, though it did show some late session strength.  By the end of the session the USD was unchanged against the Euro, while firming versus the Pound and falling against the Yen.

JPY – Rising risk aversion and safe haven demand led the Yen to strong gains Tuesday as it firmed broadly against rival currencies.

TRY – The Lira fell against most major currencies Tuesday, but managed to end unchanged versus the Pound.

RUB – The Ruble showed some slight softness at the close of Tuesday’s session, even though crude rebounded from earlier losses.

Commodities

Metals – The global rout in equities Tuesday killed risk appetite and helped lift the precious metals on safe haven demand.  June gold was up $10.80 at $1,230.10 an ounce.  May silver was up $0.151 at $15.095 an ounce.

Oil – Crude bounced back from early losses as traders continue to hold on to the possibility of a production freeze coming from a meeting of top oil producing nations later this month.  Crude futures for delivery in May ended with a modest gain of $0.19, or 0.5%, to settle at $35.89 a barrel.

Indices 

S&P500 – The S&P opened lower in reaction to the losses across Europe and the weak German factory order data.  Investors remained worried about global growth all day and the S&P ended the day with a 1.01% loss and remained in positive territory for the year by just 0.1%.

DAX – The DAX opened sharply lower in the wake of German factory order data, which showed a 1.2% contraction in February versus expectations for a small gain.  Investors remained disappointed and the index remained at session lows all day to close with a 2.63% loss.

Nikkei – The Nikkei opened lower in response to the overnight weakness from U.S. markets and continued falling all day as the Yen strengthened steadily against the USD.  By the end of the trading session the Nikkei was 2.42% lower as the USD/JPY fell to a 17 month low beneath the 111.00 level.

Stocks

JPMorgan Chase & Co. – After rising throughout 2015 for a 6.56% gain as investors hoped for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, shares of JPMorgan have had a dismal 2016.  After closing out 2015 at $66.03 a share, the stock has dropped to roughly $59 a share as the Federal Reserve has ruled out four interest rate hikes this year, and based on recent statements may not even complete the forecast two rate hikes.  That said, the stock is trading above the 50 day moving average, which looks to be providing support.  And the 50 day moving average line has recently turned higher, so we have a possibility of gains from the stock in the short term, but in the medium term it remains in a downtrend.

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