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April 29, 2016

April 29, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
01:30 AUD PPI q/q 0.3% 0.2%
06:00 EUR German Retail Sales m/m -0.4% 0.3%
07:00 EUR Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.8% 0.7%
08:00 CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
08:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.9B 5.0B
09:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.0% -0.1%
12:30 CAD GDP m/m 0.6% -0.1%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.6% 0.6%
12:30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.1% 0.2%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI 53.6 53.1
Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report

 

Global Commentary

Asian shares finished mixed on Thursday following the overnight non-event from the U.S. Federal Reserve as they stood firm on current monetary policy and gave markets no clue if a June rate hike was in the cards.  Another central bank stood firm on monetary policy today as well, shocking markets.  The Bank of Japan voted to keep monetary policy unchanged, which caused the Yen to surge higher by 3% and the Nikkei to drop by 3.61%.  Market watchers had been fairly sure that the Bank of Japan would add to their monetary stimulus plan, and when that didn’t materialize Japanese equities and currency went wild.  In China markets were mixed with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advancing 0.13%, while the mainland Shanghai Composite fell 0.27%.  Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 endured a choppy trading session, but finished with a 0.73% gain.  In South Korea the Kospi was 0.72% lower, and in Singapore the Straits Times Index fell 0.43%.  European markets were able to pull out a third consecutive winning session as gains in crude helped offset the disappointment from the Bank of Japan decision.  The Stoxx Europe 600 was 0.17% higher at the close, with Germany’s DAX adding 0.21%, while the CAC 40 in France edged lower by 0.04%.  London’s FTSE also managed to finish 0.04% higher thanks to rising crude prices.  U.S. markets opened to the downside as investors registered their displeasure at the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision.  The y continued lower as weak corporate earnings and tepid economic data added to the gloomy atmosphere on Wall Street.  At the close the S&P 500 was lower by 0.92%, the Dow dropped 1.17%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.19%.

 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro gained on a weak USD yesterday, but fell versus the Pound and even more so against the Yen.

GBP – The Pound firmed against the Euro and USD Thursday, but fell versus the Yen after the Bank of Japan decision to hold firm on monetary policy.

USD – The USD was broadly weaker Thursday in the wake of the neutral monetary policy statement delivered the previous day.

JPY – The Yen surged higher against rival currencies Thursday after the Bank of Japan shocked markets by holding firm on its current monetary policy.

TRY – The Lira was mixed Thursday as it softened against the Yen and the Pound, firmed versus the USD, and ended the day unchanged against the Euro.

RUB – A six month high in crude helped the Ruble firm against most major currencies Thursday, though the Russian currency was weaker versus the rallying Yen.


Commodities

Metals – Precious metals had a good day Thursday as safe haven demand surged following the uncertainties created by the Bank of Japan decision to hold firm on monetary policy.  June gold was up $17.00 at $1,267.40 an ounce.  July silver was up $0.265 at $17.60 an ounce.

Oil – Crude climbed to its highest closing level in six months on Thursday as traders remained optimistic following reports of a seventh consecutive week of falling U.S. crude production.  A weak USD also helped support crude as June WTI crude tacked on $0.70, or 1.5%, to settle at $46.03 a barrel.

 

Indices

S&P500 – The S&P opened lower on disappointment over the Bank of Japan decision, but was able to pull together and move into positive territory by late morning.  After spending a couple hours trading in the black the market became overwhelmed with poor earnings reports and weak economic data and began to fall.  Momentum increased in the final hour and the S&P ended the day 0.92% lower.

DAX – The DAX fell at the open on investor’s disappointment following the lack of action from the Bank of Japan.  A recovery began mid-morning as gains in crude helped lift the energy sector.  Momentum picked up in the afternoon and the DAX was able to pull into positive territory and finish the session 0.21% higher.

Nikkei – The Nikkei opened to gains and was trading up by 1.8% as investors headed to lunch.  Little did they know that while they were gone the Bank of Japan would announce that they were keeping monetary policy unchanged, sending the Yen surging higher.  Investors returned from lunch and reacted to the news by selling stocks enmasse, sending the Nikkei off its highs and to a 3.61% loss for the day.  Investors will have a long weekend to cool off as Japanese markets will be closed Friday for a national holiday.


Stocks

Baidu – Shares of the Chinese search engine jumped 4.29% in afterhours trading after the company reported a 24% increase in advertising revenue for the first quarter as well as better than expected earnings.  The company also increased their guidance for the second quarter, citing strong demand for internet advertising.  The stock has been making a recovery off its February lows and yesterday’s bounce lifted it off the 50 day moving average.  The afterhours gain took the stock to $194.00 a share and the next level of resistance is at the $212.00 level, indicating roughly 10% upside potential in the short term.

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