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April 28, 2016

April 28, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
05:00 JPY BOJ Outlook Report
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.8% -0.2%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
07:00 EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y -0.8% -0.7%
12:30 USD Advance GDP q/q 1.4% 0.7%
12:30 USD Unemployment Claims 247K 258K

Global Commentary 

Markets across Asia headed lower Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision in the U.S.  Australia’s S&P/ASX also struggled with the prospect of lower interest rates after Australian CPI data came in much worse than expected, sending the index lower by 0.63%.  Japan’s Nikkei once again struggled with a strengthening Yen during the session and ended the day with a loss of 0.36%.  Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite had a choppy session and then fell sharply in the final hour of trading to end 0.37% lower.  The Hang Seng in Hong Kong ended with a 0.24% loss as it followed the mainland market lower.  In South Korea the Kospi ended the day off by 0.21% and Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 0.69%.  European markets were modestly higher ahead of the U.S. central bank monetary policy decision.  The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.3% in its second consecutive up day, with Germany’s DAX adding 0.39% while the CAC 40 in France advanced 0.58%.  London’s FTSE was also up for a second day in a row as it gained 0.56% thanks to higher crude prices.  U.S. markets ended mixed following the Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged.  The tech sector weighed on the broader markets leaving the Nasdaq with a 0.51% loss, while the S&P 500 gained 0.16% and the Dow added 0.28%. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro traded broadly higher against rival currencies Wednesday as traders got some good data from Germany as well as higher yields from a German 30-year bond auction.

GBP – The Pound fell against the Euro and USD Wednesday while ending the day unchanged versus the Yen after preliminary first quarter GDP was reported in-line with expectations.

USD – The USD gained on the Yen and Pound, but was softer versus the Euro following the neutral Federal Reserve monetary policy statement.

JPY – The Yen was mostly softer Wednesday, falling against the USD and Euro, but ending the session unchanged versus the Pound.

TRY – The Lira was mostly stronger Wednesday, gaining on all the majors with the exception of the Euro.

RUB – Rising crude helped lift the Ruble as well, with the Russian currency gaining modestly on most rivals, but ending unchanged versus the Euro.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals finished the session higher following a neutral Fed policy statement and with outside markets remaining bullish for the metals.  June gold was up $3.00 at $1,246.00 an ounce.  July silver was up $0.051 at $17.21 an ounce.

Oil – Crude was lifted Wednesday, even though crude inventory levels rose for the third week in a row, by data showing that U.S. production fell for a seventh consecutive week.  June West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.29, or 2.9%, to settle at $45.33 a barrel.

Indices 

S&P500 – The S&P was trading in negative territory ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, but pulled higher following the announcement of no rate hike now and no real change in Fed guidance.  The news sent the index to a gain of 0.16% for the day.

DAX – The DAX started the day choppy, trading back and forth over unchanged levels before finally settling and heading higher mid-morning.  The market continued to show some froth in the afternoon, but remained in positive territory to close higher by 0.39%.

Nikkei – The Nikkei began the day in positive territory, but quickly fell into the red as investors reacted to the stronger Yen.  It continued falling all morning, hitting its session low just before the lunch break.  There was a slight recovery in the afternoon which was muted by investor caution over the upcoming U.S. and Japanese central bank meetings, and the Nikkei ended the session with a 0.36% loss.


Stocks

Facebook – The social media giant continues to be a favorite of Wall Street after they crushed earnings estimates yesterday, reporting earnings of $0.77 a share for the first quarter versus estimates of $0.62 a share.  Revenue was up 52% on a year-over-year basis and ad revenue rose 57% on a year-over-year basis.  They also showed strong mobile performance, with 82% of revenue coming from mobile users.  The stock surged 9.08% in after hours trading and if it holds those levels when the market opens Thursday will be at an all-time high.  We think the stock should be able to maintain the momentum from this excellent quarter for some time, making it a good candidate for long positions.

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