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April 21, 2016

April 21,2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
08:30 GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.4% -0.1%
11:45 EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.00% 0.00%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 12.4 8.1
12:30 USD Unemployment Claims 253K 265K
14:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -10 -9
14:00 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Global Commentary 

Asian markets ended the day mixed Wednesday, with the biggest move coming from mainland China where the Shanghai Composite plummeted for no discernible reason.  Shares in the mainland Chinese market began the day unchanged, but began to plunge mid-morning and were down by nearly 4.5% just after the lunch break.  A late day rally helped the market recover some of the losses, with the Shanghai Composite ending 2.31% lower.  Shares in Hong Kong were lower in response to the mainland losses as well, with the Hang Seng losing 0.93%.  Japan’s Nikkei started off well, but then spent the day giving back gains as the Yen strengthened, but did manage to maintain a 0.19% gain at the close.  The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia led the region as it added 0.52%, though it too was well off its early session high.  In Singapore the Straits Times Index crept lower by 0.06% and in South Korea the Kospi finished 0.27% lower.  Markets in Europe notched a third session in a row of gains and hit a new three month high as well.  The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the day 0.43% higher, with Germany’s DAX adding 0.69% and the CAC 40 in France advancing 0.56%.  London’s FTSE also advanced for a third consecutive session as a rally in oil pulled the index out of the red for a gain of 0.08%.  U.S. markets ended broadly higher, but off their daily highs as a rally in crude and better than expected housing data helped support equities.  At the close the S&P 500 was 0.08% higher, the Dow added 0.24% and the Nasdaq tacked on 0.16%. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro was mostly weaker Wednesday, falling against the USD and Pound, though it did recover from early losses to firm slightly versus the Yen.

GBP – The Pound continued to firm against the Euro and Yen Wednesday, but sank versus the USD.

USD – The U.S. dollar strengthened during the North American session, ending the day broadly firmer versus rival currencies.

JPY – The Yen was stronger in the Asian session, but reversed course later in the day and finished the day broadly softer.

TRY – The Lira rallied broadly Wednesday after Turkey cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, which was in-line with expectations.

RUB – The Ruble gained broadly Wednesday, helped by a rally in crude that took it to its highest level since November.

Commodities

Metals – Gold paused in consolidation Wednesday, while silver continued to power higher, hitting another 10.5 month high.  June gold was up $0.20 at $1,254.50 an ounce.  May silver was up $0.178 at $17.15 an ounce.

Oil – Crude slipped lower as Kuwaiti oil workers ended their three day strike, but then recovered and rallied higher after the U.S. reported a sixth consecutive week of falling production.  The expiring May WTI contract added $1.55, or 3.8%, to settle at $42.63 a barrel, while the new front month June contract added $1.71, or 4%, to end at $44.18.  This is the highest level for crude since November.

Indices 

S&P500 – The S&P began the day trading unchanged and after a dip into the red mid-morning headed higher in response to a rally in the crude markets.  After rising steadily for the rest of the day the market sold off in the final hour, holding to a small gain of 0.08%.

DAX – The DAX began the day trading in a choppy manner in negative territory.  The market picked up in the afternoon as crude began to rally higher and U.S. markets opened to gains.  A strong push higher in the final hour of trading saw the index posting a gain of 0.69% for the day.

Nikkei – Japan’s benchmark index opened to a gain of roughly 0.8%, but it began to give back the gains almost immediately as the Yen began to strengthen during the session.  After falling steadily all morning the index tried to recover in the afternoon, but that failed and it dropped back, only holding on to a 0.19% gain at the close.

Stocks

Coca-Cola – Shares of the beverage maker fell 4.79% Wednesday after the company released earnings that narrowly beat Wall Street expectations and revenues that were down 4% on a year-on-year basis.  It wasn’t so much the first quarter results that hurt the stock, but rather the cautious guidance for the second quarter as the company pointed to challenging macroeconomic conditions and failed to raise its profit outlook.  The drop is probably just a setback for Coke shares, which were up 8% in 2016 before yesterday’s selloff.  We think it likely that the stock will recover and move to even higher levels later this year.

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