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April 20, 2016

April 20, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
08:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.1% 2.1%
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Change -18.0K -11.9K
08:30 GBP Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.1%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.0%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.08M 5.29M
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 6.6M

Global Commentary 

Asian markets made a recovery on Tuesday, bouncing back from the losses seen in the Monday session.  Japan’s Nikkei far outperformed the rest of the region as it surged higher by 3.68% in response to the weakness of the Yen versus the USD as well as the overnight strength seen in U.S. markets.  Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.01% as raw commodities have picked up recently and investors expect the Australian economy to benefit.  Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite was 0.30% higher as it had a somewhat choppy trading session.  In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was 1.30% higher as energy shares picked up following the overnight strength from crude.  South Korea’s Kospi edged higher by 0.11% following the decision by the country’s central bank to keep interest rates unchanged.  The Straits Times Index in Singapore put in a solid performance as it gained 1.17%.  Markets in Europe finished at a three month high, gaining on the recovery in crude and a slate of solid earnings reports.  The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the day 1.46% higher and at its best close since January.  In Germany the DAX was 2.27% higher, while the French CAC 40 advanced 1.32%.  London’s FTSE was also 0.82% higher on the recovery in crude and upbeat earnings reports.  U.S. markets ended the day mixed as the tech sector weighed on the broader market following IBM reporting its 16th straight quarter of declining revenue.  At the close the S&P 500 was up by 0.31%, the Dow added 0.27%, but the Nasdaq was 0.40% lower. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro was stronger against the Yen and USD Tuesday, while falling versus the Pound.

GBP – The Pound showed strength for a third consecutive session, gaining broadly on rival currencies.

USD – The USD fell against the Euro and Pound Tuesday, while remaining close to unchanged levels versus the Yen after a much weaker than expected U.S. housing report put pressure on the greenback.

JPY – The Yen was broadly weaker Tuesday as risk appetite remained high in markets.

TRY – The Lira was mixed Tuesday as it firmed against the USD and Yen, but fell versus the Pound and Euro.

RUB – Rising crude prices did little to help the Ruble Tuesday as it edged up slightly against the Yen and USD, but remained nearly unchanged versus the Euro and Pound.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals made solid gains Tuesday, with silver hitting a 10.5 month high as outside markets were bullish for the metals and a weaker than expected U.S. housing report added more upside momentum.  June gold was up $20.70 at $1,255.70 an ounce.  May silver was up $0.657 at $16.91 an ounce.

Oil – Crude snapped a four session losing streak Tuesday as a strike by Kuwaiti oil workers entered its third day and production from the country remained at roughly half its normal level.  May WTI crude rose $1.30, or 3.3%, to settle at $41.08 a barrel.

Indices 

S&P500 – The S&P opened higher and did well in the morning as investors were cheered by firming crude prices.  The market dropped sharply right around noon though, dipping briefly into negative territory before recovering throughout the afternoon to finish with a gain of 0.31%.

DAX – The DAX opened nearly unchanged but quickly turned higher.  The index continued to gain steadily until noon, with gains continuing slightly through mid-afternoon when the index hit its daily high.  It edged a bit lower late in the afternoon, but held on to a 2.27% gain at the close.

Nikkei – The Nikkei rocketed higher at the open in response to the overnight weakness in the Yen and strength from Wall Street.  Nearly all the gains were made right at the open, but the index did creep higher throughout the day to post a gain of 3.68%.


Stocks

Netflix – Shares of the streaming video service were 13% lower yesterday as it continued to get beaten up following a more than 12% drop after hours on Monday.  The moves lower came after the company reported first quarter earnings that doubled analysts’ expectations, but also provided weak guidance on future growth in international subscribers.  To add more pain to the already struggling stock, Amazon announced on Sunday that it was opening up its Prime membership, which includes video streaming, to monthly subscribers.  While the company did guide lower for future subscriber growth it actually beat on the first quarter subscriber growth estimates.  The stock had been making a nice advance, rising above the 200 day moving average recently.  The drop puts it back below that key level, but considering that the move lower may have been overdone we could get  a pop back to the 200 day moving average, taking the stock from its current $94.34 a share to $106.79 a share.

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