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April 19, 2016

April 19, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
01:30 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes    
09:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 4.3 8.2
12:30 USD Building Permits 1.18M 1.20M
12:30 USD Housing Starts 1.18M 1.17M
13:30 AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks    
14:35 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks    
15:00 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks    
23:50 JPY Trade Balance 0.17T 0.45T

Global Commentary 

Markets across Asia posted losses Monday as investors were disappointed by the lack of progress out of the oil summit in Doha, Qatar over the weekend.  The worst hit was the Nikkei in Japan, which ended 3.40% lower as investors struggled not only with falling crude, but also with the fallout from Saturday’s earthquakes in southern Japan and a Yen that was stronger due to safe haven demand.  Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite dropped right at the open and traded at session lows all day to post a loss of 1.44%.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng followed the mainland lower and was off by 0.73% at the close.  In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 looked as if it would recover from early losses, but was unable to get past the unchanged line and dropped back to end 0.40% lower.  In South Korea the Kospi was off by 0.28%, and the Singapore Straits Times Index fell by 0.21%.  European markets opened lower on the disappointing news out of Qatar, but later pared the losses and headed into the black as investors realized there was never much chance of a deal coming out of this oil summit.  The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the session 0.41% higher, with Germany’s DAX gaining 0.68% and the CAC 40 in France advancing 0.26%.  U.K. investors also shrugged off early losses and the FTSE finished 0.15% higher.  Markets in the U.S. shrugged off early losses and ended broadly higher.  At the close the S&P 500 was up by 0.65%, the Dow advanced 0.60%, and the Nasdaq added 0.44%. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro firmed solidly against the Yen and USD Monday, while falling versus the Pound.

GBP – The Pound firmed across the board against rival currencies Monday as investor risk appetite turned higher late in the trading session.

USD – The USD fell against the Euro and Pound Monday, but gained on the Yen, erasing earlier losses versus the Japanese currency.

JPY – The Yen firmed early in the session on safe haven demand, but turned around later to erase the gains and end the day broadly softer versus rival currencies.

TRY – The Lira firmed against most major currencies Monday, but ended somewhat softer versus the Pound.

RUB – The Ruble had a volatile session as it gapped lower against major currencies at the open and plummeted along with crude prices.  A reversal in crude led to a reversal in the Ruble as well and the Russian currency finished the day broadly and solidly firmer.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals ended the day mixed as early safe haven demand gave way to selling in response to a small rally in U.S. equities.  June gold was up $1.10 at $1,235.70 an ounce.  May silver was down $0.048 at $16.265 an ounce.

Oil – After falling by 6.8% in early trade following the lack of any production cuts or freezes following the oil summit in Qatar, crude recovered and pared a good part of the losses.  Part of the recovery was the realization that there was never much chance for a deal, and the rest of the recovery came as oil workers in Kuwait went on strike, nearly halving the country’s production.  May WTI crude was down $0.58, or 1.4%, settling at $39.78 a barrel.

Indices 

S&P500 – The S&P opened in the red, but quickly turned higher as investors were able to shrug off losses from crude markets.  After trading steadily higher all day the large cap index ended with a gain of 0.65%.

DAX – The DAX opened in the red, but was back to unchanged levels by noon as investors began to dismiss the lack of a deal out of the weekend oil meeting in Qatar.  The market struggled to get above the unchanged line for several hours, but finally burst through and headed steadily higher to post a gain of 0.68% for the day.

Nikkei – Japan’s Nikkei opened with a sharp loss as investors reacted to the southern Japan earthquakes from over the weekend as well as a stronger Yen, with the currency gapping higher on safe haven demand following the lack of progress out of the Middle East oil summit.  The market drifted lower throughout the day, but most of the damage had already been done at the open, and the Nikkei ended the session with a 3.40% loss.

Stocks

International Business Machines Corp (IBM) – Shares of the old school technology company that has been trying to re-invent itself fell by more than 5% in after-hours trade Monday following the release of the company’s revenue and earnings statement.  The statement showed that IBM earned $2.09 a share on revenues of $18.68 billion versus last years’ earnings of $2.35 a share on revenues of $19.59 billion.  It was the 16th straight quarter of declining revenue at the company, which has been trying to cut its reliance on hardware and move more to cloud based computing and data analytics.  The overnight drop takes the stock nearly to the 200 day moving average, so there is some chance of a bounce at that level.

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