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April 18, 2016

April 18, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
12:30 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Global Commentary 

Asian markets were mixed Friday, with each country focusing on domestic issues for the most part.  Japan’s Nikkei broke a three day string of losses as it fell 0.37% for the day, even though the Yen continued to weaken versus the USD.  China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.14% as investors were disappointed with the 6.7% GDP growth for the first quarter of 2016.  Shares in Hong Kong followed the mainland market lower, with the Hang Seng ending the session off by 0.10%.  In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.76%, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index also added 0.34%.  South Korea’s market edged lower with the Kospi finishing with a 0.06% loss.  European markets slipped lower Friday as investors were cautious of making any large purchases ahead of this weekend’s meeting between top oil producing nations in Qatar.  The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the day 0.35% lower, with Germany’s DAX falling 0.42% and the CAC 40 in France lower by 0.36%.  U.K. investors were also cautious ahead of the weekend and the FTSE lost 0.34% for the day.  U.S. markets edged lower as well ahead of this weekend, with investors remaining cautious.  Still the major indices posted solid weekly gains, with the Dow having the best week in a month.  At the close the S&P 500 was off by 0.10%, the Dow lost 0.16%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.16% as well. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro was mostly lower Friday, falling against the Pound and Yen, but holding on to a small gain versus the USD.

GBP – The Pound reverted back to strength Friday, gaining on the USD and Euro, though it was slightly weaker against the Yen.

USD – The USD was broadly weaker Friday, falling against rival currencies as a series of economic data points all came in weaker than expected.

JPY – The Yen firmed broadly Friday as some risk aversion returned to markets ahead of the weekend oil summit in Qatar.

TRY – The Lira fell broadly Friday after Turkey announced that they ran a $2.4 billion deficit in the month of March.

RUB – Weakness in the crude market found its way to the Ruble Friday, causing the Russian currency to soften broadly against major currency rivals.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals gained Friday as risk appetite in markets declined.  June gold settled $8.10, or 0.7%, higher at $1,234.60 an ounce Friday, but was roughly 0.8% lower on a weekly basis, giving it its first weekly loss in three weeks.  May silver ended $0.14, or 0.9%, higher at $16.31 an ounce, giving it a nearly 6% weekly gain.

Oil – Crude was lower Friday, but maintained a weekly gain of 1.6% as traders braced for the Sunday meeting of top oil producing countries to discuss possible production freezes.  May WTI crude fell $1.14, or 2.8%, to settle at $40.36 a barrel.

Indices 

S&P500 – The S&P started the day slightly lower and continued to trade flat for the day, ending with a small loss of 0.10%.  On a weekly basis the S&P was 1.26% higher, though Friday’s loss had it slipping off a 2016 high.

DAX – The DAX opened lower and continued to trade in a choppy manner in negative territory all day as investors across Europe were cautious ahead of this weekend’s meeting regarding oil production.  At the end of the session the DAX was well off its daily lows, but still posting a 0.42% loss.

Nikkei – The Nikkei opened deep in the red after the Yen strengthened against the USD overnight.  The Yen proceeded to weaken during the Asian session, pulling the Nikkei higher, but it was unable to break above the unchanged line, despite several attempts.  The market fell for the final two hours of trading, ending the day with a 0.37% loss and snapping a three session winning streak, but holding on to a 6.5% weekly gain.


Stocks

Netflix – The video streaming service reports revenue and earnings Monday after the bell and is expected to report a profit of $0.03 a share on revenues of $1.965 billion.  The company is already under fire from those who question its ability to continue to grow its U.S. subscriber base, though the company has made large strides in the international space recently.  The stock has been climbing off a February 8th low near $83 a share and closed Friday up 0.99% at $111.51 a share.  This is just below a resistance level around $115 a share, so the company will need good results to bust through the resistance.  If it can, it faces much stronger resistance at the $125 level.  If it reports mediocre revenues, earnings, or subscriber growth it could easily pull back to the support at the $100 level.

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