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April 13, 2016

April 13, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 210B 203B
08:30 GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
12:30 USD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.4%
12:30 USD PPI m/m -0.2% 0.3%
12:30 USD Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.1%
14:00 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
14:00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
14:00 CAD Overnight Rate 0.50% 0.50%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.9M 1.0M
15:15 CAD BOC Press Conference

Global Commentary 

Asian markets were broadly higher Tuesday as investors were encouraged by a weaker Yen against the USD as well as rising commodities.  The Nikkei was the biggest beneficiary of the weaker Yen, rising 1.13% to outperform the region.  Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.89% as rising commodity prices helped equities perform well.  Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite was a dark spot in the region as it fell 0.34% on investor concerns about capital being drawn away from shares after seven IPOs were approved by Chinese regulators.  The Hang Seng in Hong Kong balanced out the mainland losses by rising 0.34%.  Elsewhere South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.56%, while th Straits Times in Singapore ended the day 0.19% higher.  European markets gained for a third consecutive session, with commodity linked shares leading the way higher.  The Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.53%, while Germany’s DAX was 0.81% higher and the CAC 40 in France advanced 0.77%.  London’s FTSE also benefitted from firmer commodity prices and finished the day with a 0.68% gain.  Markets in the U.S. put in a solid gain on the back of the continued rally in crude.  At the close, the S&P 500 was 0.97% higher, the Dow added 0.94%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.80%. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro found itself mixed on Tuesday as it firmed against the Yen, but fell versus the Pound and USD.

GBP – The Pound continued to show strength for a third consecutive session Tuesday, firming broadly against rival currencies.

USD – The USD began to show signs of returning strength Tuesday as it firmed against the Euro and Yen, but was still weaker versus the Pound.

JPY – The Yen was broadly weaker Tuesday after Japan’s finance minister spoke out and warned markets of an excessively strong Yen.

TRY – The Lira was mixed Tuesday as it firmed against the Yen, softened versus the Pound and USD, and ended the session unchanged against the Euro.

RUB – With crude hitting its highest level in 2016 on Tuesday, the Ruble shot higher against major currencies.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals continued to climb Tuesday, spurred on by the weak U.S. dollar and rising crude prices.  June gold was up $1.80 at $1,259.70 an ounce.  May silver was up $0.239 at $16.215 an ounce for a 5 ½ month high.

Oil – Crude moved to its highest level of 2016 as rumors emerged that Russia and Saudi Arabia have already agreed to a production freeze ahead of this weekend’s meeting of top oil producing nations.  WTI crude for May delivery jumped $1.81, or 4.5%, to settle at $42.17 a barrel.

Indices 

S&P500 – After getting off to a bit of a rocky start, the S&P 500 turned higher mid-morning and never looked back.  A continued rally in crude was the catalyst for the gains, which saw the S&P finishing the day 0.97% higher and moving back into positive territory for 2016.

DAX – The DAX opened higher, but soon fell into the red.  The market recovered just before noon and traded higher for most of the day.  There was a brief dip into negative territory late in the afternoon, but the DAX quickly recovered and moved to fresh daily highs by the close for a gain of 0.81%.

Nikkei – The Nikkei jumped higher at the open as investors were cheered by weakness in the Yen against the USD.  The market suffered some choppy trade in the morning, but settled at session highs by the lunch break.  Traders came back from lunch in a good mood and the Nikkei ended the day at session highs, tacking on 1.13%.

Stocks

JPMorgan Chase – The global bank reports on first quarter revenue and earnings today, and it isn’t expected to be pretty.  There are a variety of things currently weighing on earnings at JPMorgan, including trading losses, weak investment banking results, and defaults on loans to energy companies.  The company is widely expected to report its first earnings decline in five quarters, and markets aren’t likely to take that well.  Shares of JPMorgan have fallen after the past two earnings reports, despite both being better than expected.  In October the stock was down 2.5% after reporting on the third quarter and in January it fell 2% after reporting for the fourth quarter.  Considering the poor results expected today it makes sense that we will see shares fall by at least that much.  Shares are currently trading at $59.28 a share, which leaves some downside room as the closest support area is at $55 a share.

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