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April 14, 2016

April 14, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
01:30 AUD Employment Change 0.3K 18.6K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate 5.8% 5.9%
09:00 EUR Final CPI y/y -0.1% -0.1%
11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
11:00 GBP Monetary Policy Summary
11:00 GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
12:30 USD CPI m/m -0.2% 0.2%
12:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
12:30 USD Unemployment Claims 267K 270K

Global Commentary 

Asian markets rallied strongly Wednesday in response to the overnight gains from crude as well as better than expected Chinese trade data and some weakness in the Yen.  Crude was certainly a major factor in the rally, sending the Hang Seng in Hong Kong higher by 3.19% to lead the region’s gains on strength from the energy sector.  Over in mainland China the Shanghai Composite was up by 1.42% on improved investor sentiment following trade data that showed exports rising for the first time in nine months.  Japan’s Nikkei extended its rally by adding 2.84% as the Yen weakened for a second consecutive session.  Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 participated in the rally as well, gaining 1.59%, while in Singapore the Straits Times index finished 2.69% higher.  South Korea’s market was closed for a national holiday.  European markets extended the rally, rising for a fourth consecutive session to strong gains as the rise in China’s exports gave indications that the global economy may not be as weak as suspected.  The Stoxx Europe 600 tacked on 2.52%, while Germany’s DAX advanced 2.71% and the French CAC 40 gained 3.32%.  London’s FTSE also put in a solid performance as it gained 1.93% to close at a 2016 high.  U.S. markets gained broadly, with a better than expected earnings report from JPMorgan Chase sending the banking sector skyrocketing.  By the close the S&P 500 was 1.00% higher, the Dow added 1.06%, and the Nasdaq tacked on 1.55%. 

FOREX

EUR – The Euro broke down Wednesday as safe haven flows into the shared currency reversed, sending the Euro to broad based softness versus rival currencies.

GBP – The Pound continued to gain on the Euro and Yen on Wednesday, but fell versus the USD.

USD – The USD made broad based gains against rivals Wednesday as the global rally in equities saw risk appetite in markets climbing, leading more traders to the greenback.

JPY – The Yen softened against the USD and Pound on Wednesday, but firmed modestly versus the Euro.

TRY – The Lira was mixed Wednesday as it fell against the USD, gained on the Euro and to a lesser extent the Yen, and finished unchanged versus the Pound.

RUB – The Ruble slipped somewhat Wednesday, falling broadly against major currencies as weakness from crude weighed on the Russian currency.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals diverged Wednesday as gold fell on profit taking and bearish outside markets, but silver continued to rally, hitting another 5 ½ month high.  June gold was down $12.80 at $1,248.10 an ounce.  May silver was up $0.078 at $16.30 an ounce.

Oil – Crude snapped a three session winning streak Wednesday, falling but ending off its daily lows, even with the U.S. reporting a large increase in weekly inventory levels.  May WTI crude was down $0.41, or 1%, settling at $41.76 a barrel.

Indices 

S&P500 – The S&P opened higher, extending the global rally from Asia and Europe.  Strong results from JPMorgan helped give markets a further boost, with the entire banking sector rising spectacularly.  By the end of the session the S&P was looking at a gain of 1.00%.

DAX – The DAX was significantly higher at the open, gaining on investor enthusiasm over the better than expected Chinese trade data.  The market continued to edge higher throughout the day, finishing with a solid gain of 2.71%.

Nikkei – The Nikkei jumped at the open on the overnight weakness of the Yen and then continued climbing steadily all day as investors were encouraged by continued weakness from the Yen against the USD.  By the end of the trading session the Nikkei was 2.84% higher.

Stocks

American Express – The financial services company gained 2.44% yesterday in response to the earnings beat from JPMorgan Chase.  The gain highlights what appears to be a recovery in the stock from its February low near $51 a share.  Since then the stock is up more than 20% and further gains could be on the horizon as Amex reports its own revenues and earnings next week on April 20th and is expected to beat consensus estimates.  Such a beat could push the stock back to the $70 a level.

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