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April 11, 2016

April 11, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
01:30 CNY CPI y/y 2.3% 2.4%
01:30 CNY PPI y/y -4.9% -4.6%
Tentative USD Fed Announcement
23:50 JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.2%

Global Commentary

Markets across Asia were mostly lower Friday as investors reacted to overnight weakness from Europe and the U.S., as well as beginning to pare risk in light of the continuing strength of the Yen.  Ironically it was the Nikkei in Japan that was one of the few rising markets, gaining 0.46% as it pared early losses and rose in response to a weaker Yen during the Asian session.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also ended the day higher by 0.51% as it rallied late in the day in response to gains from the crude market.  The mainland Chinese market ended lower, with the Shanghai Composite leading losses around the region as it slipped by 0.78%.  Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.53% lower, though it did finish off its session low.  In Singapore the Straits Times Index fell 0.19%, while the Kospi in South Korea edged lower by 0.09%.  Markets across Europe ended the day broadly higher in response to rising crude and upbeat trade data out of Germany.  The Stoxx Europe 600 was 1.15% higher, while Germany’s DAX advanced 0.96% and the CAC 40 in France added 1.35%.  London’s FTSE also ended the week on an upbeat note as it tacked on 1.10% in response to the surge in crude.  U.S. markets opened to the upside, but gave up much of the early gains by the close as they booked their worst weekly losses since the beginning of February.  At the close Friday the S&P 500 was up by 0.28%, the Dow added 0.20%, and the Nasdaq edged higher by 0.05%.

FOREX

EUR – The Euro gained on the USD Friday, but softened against the Pound, and against the Yen, giving up earlier gains versus the Japanese currency.

GBP – The Pound got a bounce Friday as it firmed broadly against rival currencies, likely on some profit taking from traders ahead of the weekend.

USD – The USD continues to show weakness as it fell broadly against rivals on Friday.

JPY – The Yen looked weaker in early trade, but finished the day stronger against the USD and Euro, and just slightly weaker versus the Pound as it pared all the early weakness.

TRY – The Lira tried to reverse weakness from earlier this week on Friday as it gained on the USD and Euro, but ended unchanged versus the Yen and Pound.

RUB – The Ruble was broadly stronger against major currencies Friday, but gains were weak considering the huge spike experienced by crude.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals moved higher Friday as concerns over global growth lingered.  June gold closed up $6.30, or 0.5%, to $1,243.80 an ounce Friday for a weekly gain of about 1.7%. May silver rose $0.226, or 1.5%, to $15.384 an ounce. The gray metal scored a roughly 2% gain for the week.

Oil – Crude ended the Friday session sharply higher as traders expect U.S. production to continue falling, and signs of reviving demand are emerging.  WTI crude futures for delivery in May jumped $2.46, or 6.6%, to end at 39.72 a barrel.

Indices

S&P500 – After rising nearly 1% in the first hour of trading thanks to a rally in crude, the S&P spent the rest of the session drifting lower.  It held on to a 0.28% gain by the close, but was 1.2% lower for the week.  It was the worst weekly performance for the large cap index since the first week of February.

DAX – The DAX opened higher on the better than expected German trade data.  After trading flat in the morning it got another boost as U.S. markets opened to the upside.  By the close the DAX was 0.96% higher.

Nikkei – The Nikkei began the day lower in response to overnight weakness from Wall Street.  It managed to pare the losses by noon, heading into the lunch hour unchanged.  The index rallied in the afternoon as the Yen weakened against the USD during the Asian session.  A drop in the final hour of trading pared some of the gains, but the Nikkei still ended the day 0.46% higher.

Stocks

GoPro – After its spectacular drop from nearly $65 a share last August to under $10 a share in January of this year, shares of the action camera manufacturer have turned sideways and are trading in a range of roughly $11 to $13 a share over the past two months.  Daily ranges have been extremely tight as well, making this a difficult stock to trade right now, as even moves off the extremes of the range can take several days to develop.  Analysts continue to say hold the stock, but there seems to be little good to recommend GoPro currently.

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