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January 23, 2017

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
23:00 (Jan 22nd) EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
04:30 JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.2%
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 1.1%
15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -5

Global Commentary

Markets across Asia ended mixed on Friday as investors in the region remain uncertain and cautious ahead of the Friday inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States.  Japan’s Nikkei saw a gain of 0.34% for the day as Japanese investors were able to shrug off the effects of a strengthening Yen during the session.  On mainland China the Shanghai Composite ended with a gain of 0.70%, rising solidly after it was reported that China’s economy grew at a 6.8% pace in the previous quarter.  In Hong Kong the Hang Seng took its own course and traded down 0.71% despite the gains on the mainland and strong economic data.  The S&P/ASX in Australia retreated 0.66% as mining companies fell in response to retreating commodity prices.  In South Korea the Kospi fell 0.35%, while the Straits Times Index in Singapore added a modest 0.10%.  European markets maintained a wait and see attitude ahead of the U.S. presidential inauguration, which began as markets were closing across Europe.  The Stoxx Europe 600 edged lower by 0.07% for the day, with the DAX in Germany gaining 0.29% and the CAC 40 in France higher by 0.20%.  London’s FTSE was 0.14% lower after retail sales in the U.K. unexpectedly fell.  Markets in the U.S. jumped higher at the open and remained near those highs all morning as investors awaited the noon inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th U.S. president.  Markets ticked lower during the inauguration speech, but quickly recovered and moved higher once more to end the day with broad based gains.  At the close the S&P 500 was up by 0.34%, the Dow added 0.48%, and the Nasdaq posted a 0.28% gain.

FOREX

EUR – The Euro gained on the U.S. dollar and the Pound Friday, gaining strength late in the day, but still ending softer versus the Yen.

GBP – The Pound firmed against the USD on Friday, but ended the day softer versus the Yen and Euro as some safe haven demand emerged once again.

USD – The USD was broadly softer at the close Friday despite rising Treasury yields, as uncertainties over the upcoming Trump presidency remain.

JPY – The Yen firmed broadly against rival currencies Friday as traders returned to the safe haven currency due to continued uncertainties over the Trump presidency.

TRY – The Lira got a break on Friday, firming broadly against major currencies heading into the weekend.

RUB – Despite a 2% gain for crude, the Ruble was mixed Friday as it firmed slightly against the USD, fell slightly versus the Euro and Yen, and finished unchanged against the Pound.

Commodities

Metals – Precious metals gained Friday in response to weakness from the U.S. dollar and continued uncertainties concerning Donald Trump’s presidency.  Gold for February delivery tacked on $3.40, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,204.90 an ounce, tallying a 0.7% weekly gain.  March silver added $0.03, or 0.2%, to finish at $17.032 an ounce, for a 1.6% weekly gain.

Oil – Crude ended off its highs Friday after the U.S. reported another increase in active oil rig counts, but still posted a solid gain for the day.  February West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $1.05, or 2%, to settle at $52.42 a barrel.

Indices

S&P500 – The S&P opened higher Friday morning and maintained those levels ahead of the U.S. presidential inauguration.  It dipped just as the president was giving his inauguration speech, and while it recovered off those levels it did not make it back to session highs by the close.  Even so, it was 0.34% higher at the close, showing some optimism from investors over the coming Trump presidency.

DAX – The DAX traded in choppy action just above unchanged levels in the morning, turning higher in the afternoon as U.S. markets opened to gains.  While markets across Europe were mixed ahead of the U.S. presidential inauguration, the DAX ended the day with a gain of 0.29%.

Nikkei – The Nikkei gained in early trade Friday, but the strength of the Yen against the USD weighed on the index and sent it back to unchanged levels by the lunch break.  Investors were able to ignore the Yen strength in the afternoon however, sending the Nikkei steadily higher to post a gain of 0.34% for the day.


Stocks

Amazon – Shares of the online retailer have not participated in the Trump rally, pulling back ahead of the November election and remaining mostly range bound following the election.  More recently it looks like the stock may be gaining momentum as it traded above the $800 level after the New Year.  It still sits a small distance below the October record high of $844.36 a share, but could bust through that level in the coming weeks when the company reports its fourth quarter earnings on February 2nd.  If the company disappoints on the earnings front we will most certainly get a pullback in shares, with the $750 level looking like the support level for the stock in the case of a pullback.

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