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December 2, 2016

Time (GMT) Currency Event Previous Forecast
01:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%
10:30 GBP Construction PMI 52.6 52.3
14:30 CAD Employment Change 43.9K 0.1K
14:30 CAD Unemployment Rate 7.0% 7.0%
14:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.4% 0.2%
14:30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 161K 165K
14:30 USD Unemployment Rate 4.9% 4.9%

Global Commentary

Asian markets moved broadly higher on Thursday in response to an overnight surge higher for crude prices as well as better than expected Chinese manufacturing data for November.  Japan’s Nikkei had the regions’ best performance of the day, rising by 1.12% as it got an extra boost from further Yen weakness.  In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 rose steadily to a gain of 1.10% for the day as it benefits from firming commodity prices.  Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite posted a 0.72% gain after the November manufacturing PMI rose and surpassed expectations, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong ended the day 0.39% higher.  Gains from South Korea were more muted, with the Kospi edging up by 0.01%, while the Straits Times Index in Singapore gained 0.81% for the day.  European markets were lower as investors decide on caution ahead of this weekend’s referendum in Italy.  The Stoxx Europe 600 finished the session 0.33% lower, with the DAX in Germany dropping 1.00% and the CAC 40 in France lower by 0.39%.  London’s FTSE was 0.45% lower as well, with worries over U.K. inflation and the strength of the Pound weighing on the market.  Markets in the U.S. were mixed at the close Thursday, with gains from energy and financial shares helping to lift the Dow to a new record closing high, while continued weakness from technology and biotechnology giving the Nasdaq a second day of solid losses.  At the close the S&P 500 was lower by 0.35%, while the Dow added 0.36% and the Nasdaq slid 1.36% lower.

FOREX

EUR – The Euro firmed nicely against the USD and Yen on Thursday, while paring losses to end unchanged versus the Pound after unemployment unexpectedly fell to 9.8% in the Eurozone.

GBP – The Pound rose early in the session, but later gave back the gains to finish unchanged against the Euro and Yen, though it remained somewhat firmer versus the USD.

USD – The USD turned lower on Thursday as traders once again turned to taking profits from the greenback after its strong November rally.

JPY – The Yen was mixed on Thursday, firming against the USD, ending unchanged versus the Pound and falling against the Euro.

TRY – The Lira fell broadly on Thursday, hitting record lows against both the USD and the Euro as traders know the Turkish central bank remains averse to intervening further to halt the slide in the Turkish currency.

RUB – Despite the strong gains from crude on Thursday, the Ruble ended the session nearly unchanged against rival currencies, giving back earlier gains late in the session.

Commodities

Metals – Thanks bullish outside markets on Thursday, precious metals were mixed although the technical posture for the metals remains firmly bearish, with gold hitting a new ten month low.  February gold was last down $4.50 an ounce at $1,169.40.  March silver was last up $0.043 at $16.525 an ounce.

Oil – Crude rallied for a second consecutive session, hitting a six week low as traders remain upbeat over the planned OPEC production cut.  January West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.62, or 3.3%, to settle at $51.06 a barrel.

Indices

S&P500 – After opening higher and bouncing around the unchanged line throughout the morning the S&P finally broke down over the lunch hour and dropped into negative territory.  It remained depressed throughout the afternoon, edging lower before finally settling at its session low with a loss of 0.35% for the day as gains from energy and financials were overshadowed by losses from technology, real estate and the utilities sector.

DAX – The DAX began the day near unchanged levels, but quickly began a move lower that lasted all day.  The index fell in choppy trade as investors were concerned about this weekend’s referendum in Italy.  By the close of the session the DAX was 1.00% lower as it led losses across the region.

Nikkei – The Nikkei gained strongly in the morning in response to the combination of a sharp drop in the value of the Yen and surging crude prices overnight.  After reaching a gain of 2.3% by the lunch break the index declined in the afternoon on profit taking and some Yen strength during the Asian session.  Even with the afternoon pullback the Nikkei ended the session at its highest level of 2016 as it tacked on 1.12% to lead the Asian region for the day.


Stocks

Apple – Shares of the tech leader fell for a second day on Thursday as the entire technology sector remained under pressure.  After falling following the U.S. presidential election there was a brief recovery in tech, but the trend lower has resumed as investors seem to feel a Donald Trump presidency is not a positive for the technology sector.  The stock closed Thursday at $109.49 a share, but the real support for the stock on a short term basis is at the $105 level, so more downside could easily be coming.  Even on a longer term basis we think the trend in the stock is lower, so a move to test the stronger support at the $90 level in the coming weeks wouldn’t be a surprise.  A break below that level could be very bad for the stock as the next serious level of support is all the way down at the $60 level, which would likely mean an extended downtrend in shares.

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